Component:Probability Zone - Revision history

152.57.108.120 at 11:15, 16 January 2026

2026-01-16T11:15:22Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:15, 16 January 2026
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	! Parameter !! Value !! Description		! Parameter !! Value !! Description
	\|-		\|-
	\| <code>top_third_threshold</code> \|\| 0.~~667~~ \|\| Above 66.7% = top third		\| <code>top_third_threshold</code> \|\| 0.66 \|\| Above 66% = top third
	\|-		\|-
	\| <code>bottom_third_threshold</code> \|\| 0.~~333~~ \|\| Below 33.3% = bottom third		\| <code>bottom_third_threshold</code> \|\| 0.33 \|\| Below 33% = bottom third
	\|-		\|-
	\| <code>top_third_probability</code> \|\| 0.80 \|\| 80% continuation		\| <code>top_third_probability</code> \|\| 0.80 \|\| 80% continuation

152.57.108.120 at 11:14, 16 January 2026

2026-01-16T11:14:53Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:14, 16 January 2026
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	│ │		│ │
	│ TOP THIRD (80%) │ ← 80% continuation probability		│ TOP THIRD (80%) │ ← 80% continuation probability
	│ (Above 66.7% of range) │		│ (Above 66% of range) │
	├───────────────────────────────────────┤		├───────────────────────────────────────┤
	│ │		│ │
	│ TOP HALF (65%) │ ← 65% continuation probability		│ TOP HALF (65%) │ ← 65% continuation probability
	│ (50% - 66.7% of range) │		│ (50% - 66% of range) │
	├───────────────────────────────────────┤ ← 50% Line		├───────────────────────────────────────┤ ← 50% Line
	│ │		│ │
	│ BOTTOM HALF (35%) │ ← 35% continuation probability		│ BOTTOM HALF (35%) │ ← 35% continuation probability
	│ (33.3% - 50% of range) │		│ (33% - 50% of range) │
	├───────────────────────────────────────┤		├───────────────────────────────────────┤
	│ │		│ │
	│ BOTTOM THIRD (15%) │ ← Only 15% continuation (85% DOWN)		│ BOTTOM THIRD (15%) │ ← Only 15% continuation (85% DOWN)
	│ (Below 33.3% of range) │		│ (Below 33% of range) │
	│ │		│ │
	└───────────────────────────────────────┘ ← Swing Low		└───────────────────────────────────────┘ ← Swing Low
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	! Zone !! Range Position !! Continuation Prob !! Trading Implication		! Zone !! Range Position !! Continuation Prob !! Trading Implication
	\|-		\|-
	\| Top Third \|\| ≥ 66.7% \|\| 80% \|\| Strong LONG zone after pullback		\| Top Third \|\| ≥ 66% \|\| 80% \|\| Strong LONG zone after pullback
	\|-		\|-
	\| Top Half \|\| 50% - 66.7% \|\| 65% \|\| OK for LONG with confirmation		\| Top Half \|\| 50% - 66% \|\| 65% \|\| OK for LONG with confirmation
	\|-		\|-
	\| Bottom Half \|\| 33.3% - 50% \|\| 35% \|\| Cautious LONG, watch for confirmation		\| Bottom Half \|\| 33% - 50% \|\| 35% \|\| Cautious LONG, watch for confirmation
	\|-		\|-
	\| Bottom Third \|\| < 33.3% \|\| 15% \|\| Avoid LONG (85% chance of lower)		\| Bottom Third \|\| < 33% \|\| 15% \|\| Avoid LONG (85% chance of lower)
	\|}		\|}

152.57.108.120 at 05:51, 16 January 2026

2026-01-16T05:51:28Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:51, 16 January 2026
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	\|-		\|-
	\| <code>collapse_min_depth</code> \|\| 0.60 \|\| Min 60% for collapse		\| <code>collapse_min_depth</code> \|\| 0.60 \|\| Min 60% for collapse
	\|-
	~~\| <code>color_change_ma_proximity</code> \|\| 15.0 \|\| Points to consider "near" MA~~
	\|}		\|}

152.57.108.120 at 05:47, 16 January 2026

2026-01-16T05:47:24Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:47, 16 January 2026
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	* Price in top third = high probability of new high (80%) → favor LONG		* Price in top third = high probability of new high (80%) → favor LONG
	* Price in bottom third = low probability of new high (15%) → ~~avoid LONG~~		* Price in bottom third = low probability of new high (15%) → favor SHORT
	* Three-finger spread = profit-taking imminent → avoid new positions		* Three-finger spread = profit-taking imminent → avoid new positions
	* Crash bar = structural break → short the bounce		* Crash bar = structural break → short the bounce

152.57.36.146 at 00:19, 10 January 2026

2026-01-10T00:19:22Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:19, 10 January 2026
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	----		----

			=== The Asymmetric Probability Edge ===

			When odds are low on one outcome, '''the opposite side usually carries high odds''':
			* If new high probability drops to 15%, then '''85% odds favor reversal'''
			* We position ourselves on the high-probability side

	== Probability Zones ==		== Probability Zones ==

152.57.36.146 at 00:13, 10 January 2026

2026-01-10T00:13:38Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:13, 10 January 2026
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	\|-		\|-
	\| <code>signal_strength_modifier</code> \|\| float \|\| 0.5 - 1.5 multiplier		\| <code>signal_strength_modifier</code> \|\| float \|\| 0.5 - 1.5 multiplier
	\|-
	~~\| <code>requires_color_change</code> \|\| bool \|\| Needs color change confirmation~~
	\|}		\|}

152.57.36.146 at 00:13, 10 January 2026

2026-01-10T00:13:22Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:13, 10 January 2026
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	- Block LONG signals		- Block LONG signals
	- Allow SHORT signals with 1.5x strength		- Allow SHORT signals with 1.5x strength
	~~- Require color change confirmation for entry~~

	Post-Crash (within 5 bars):		Post-Crash (within 5 bars):

152.57.36.146 at 00:13, 10 January 2026

2026-01-10T00:13:12Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:13, 10 January 2026
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	* Zone classification for signal filtering		* Zone classification for signal filtering
	* Continuation probability for strength adjustment		* Continuation probability for strength adjustment
	* Color change detection for entry confirmation

	----		----

152.57.36.146 at 00:10, 10 January 2026

2026-01-10T00:10:44Z

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152.57.36.146 at 00:10, 10 January 2026

2026-01-10T00:10:31Z

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