Alpha Research

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Alpha Research: MCX Crude Oil MA21 Strategy

Single Source of Truth for the PlusEV Trading System

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Quick Reference: Backtest Proof

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| Rs +25,48,101 | | 19-month validation period |

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| 57.6% | | Above 55% threshold |

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| 1.20 | | Risk-adjusted returns |

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| 7,534 | | Statistical significance |

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| Rs 1,00,000 | | Starting portfolio |

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| Rs 26,48,101 | | 2548% return |

| | | | Branch: rikk_mtf_backtest001 Commit: 68dae212 "In trading systems, empirical results > theoretical understanding. If the backtest shows it works, we ship it." --- Core Trading Philosophy Foundational Principles Simple systems outperform complex ones Market behavior is probabilistic, not predictive Goal is asymmetric probability positioning, not prediction Asymmetric Probability Edge When probability of continuation drops, reversal odds rise. 15% continuation ⇒ ~85% reversal probability Strategy positions on the higher-probability side --- Probability Zones (Halves & Thirds) Large moves are divided into probability zones. Top Third → ~80% continuation (ideal SHORT zone) Top Half → ~65% continuation Bottom Half → ~35% continuation Bottom Third → ~15% continuation (ideal LONG zone) Code Reference: enable_probability_zone_filter = True probability_zone_swing_lookback = 20 probability_zone_min_range = 20.0 --- Crash Play (Core Strategy) Crash Bar Definition Bar > 2x recent average size Fast, violent, elongated move Indicates structural break Crash Play Logic Identify crash bar Divide into halves & thirds Wait for bounce into zones Enter on color change or upper-zone test Statistical Edge: ~85% odds favor continuation after crash Code Reference: crash_bar_multiplier = 2.0 --- Pullback vs Collapse Healthy Pullback 45° drift, no violent bars Holds above midpoint of prior run Odds favor continuation Collapse (No Trade) Vertical, violent selling Deep break of structure Institutional liquidation --- Identifying Market Tops Major tops usually show 2+ of the following: 3–5 leg run-up Vertical acceleration in final leg Exhaustion bar Three-Finger Spread (Price–MA21–MA200) Code Reference: three_finger_spread_threshold = 0.02 --- Entry Methodology The Fab Four Previous Day High/Low 21-period MA 200-period MA Yesterday’s Close MA is treated as a zone, not a line. Code Reference: ma_buffer_points = 25.0 Entry Hierarchy Shorts: price just below Fab Four (ceiling) Longs: price just above Fab Four (floor) Multi-Timeframe Alignment 2m, 5m, 15m, Daily alignment = high-quality setup --- Stop Loss Methodology Stop Types Event-based stop (preferred) Maximum loss stop (fallback) Goal: Stop beyond Fab Four helping zone. Code Reference: min_stop_distance = 40 default_stop_distance = 40 --- Color Change Confirmation Entry Trigger Short: red closes below prior green low Long: green closes above prior red high Rule: Do not wait for bar completion. Profit Taking (Two-Bar Rule) First opposite bar → ignore Second follow-through bar → take profit --- Trading Glossary (Engineer-Friendly) | | | | - | ------------------------ | - | ---------------- | | Small bars, quiet trend | | Reversal risk | | | | | | Alternating bars near MA | | Healthy trend | | | | | | Sustained MA bias | | A+ requirement | | | | | | >2x bar size | | Structural break | | | | | | Key reference levels | | Stop logic | | | | | --- System Architecture Overview Data → Trend → Market State → Setup Quality → Signal → Execution --- Setup Quality Scoring | | - | --- | | 30% | | | | 20% | | | | 15% | | | | 20% | | | | 15% | | | Grades: A+ ≥ 90 (Auto) A ≥ 80 (Auto) B–D ≥ 60 (Manual) F < 50 (Skip) --- Decision Trees Hour filter → MA alignment → Probability zone → Setup score → Grade → Execute --- Last Updated: 2026-01-05 | Branch: rikk_mtf_backtest001 | Validated: 19-month backtest