Trend Analysis Core

Purpose

"Is this timeframe trending or flattish[low odds of follow-through, moves are short-lived]"

For each timeframe, this component determines:

Trend Direction - UP, DOWN, or SIDEWAYS
MA Trending Status - Is 21 MA moving with conviction (45-degree) or flat?
Price-MA Struggle - Is price stuck near MA, unable to break away?

Trading Market Principle

 "Only trade when Market shows clear directional conviction."
 - 45-degree MA slope = healthy, tradeable trend → too steep or flattish = skip
 - MA21 slope tells us conviction → rising = bullish, declining = bearish, flat = no trade
 - Price stuck near MA = indecision → wait for clean break before entry
 - Direction needs both price position AND slope confirmation → one without the other is weak

Three Core Algorithms

Algorithm 1: Trend Direction

Determines if timeframe is UP, DOWN, or SIDEWAYS.

Input:  close, MA21, MA200, MA21_slope
Output: "up" | "down" | "sideways" | "unknown"

Logic:
  IF close > MA21 AND MA21_slope > +0.01%:
      return "up"

  ELIF close < MA21 AND MA21_slope < -0.01%:
      return "down"

  ELSE:
      // Fallback to MA stack
      IF MA21 > MA200: return "up"
      IF MA21 < MA200: return "down"
      return "sideways"

Algorithm 2: MA Trending Status

Checks if MA21 has significant slope (45-degree angle).

Input:  MA21 values (last 6 bars)
Output: True (trending) | False (flattish)

Formula:
  slope = (MA21_current - MA21_5_bars_ago) / MA21_5_bars_ago

  return |slope| > 0.05%

Translation to trading language:

Slope	Interpretation	Trading Action
> +0.05%	Bullish 45-degree	Look for LONG entries
< -0.05%	Bearish 45-degree	Look for SHORT entries
-0.05% to +0.05%	Flattish/Sideways	WEAKEST Low odds of follow-through, moves are short-lived

Algorithm 3: Price-MA Struggle

Detects when price is stuck near MA (indecision).

Input:  close values, MA21 values (last 5 bars)
Output: True (struggling) | False (moving freely)

Logic:
  FOR each of last 5 bars:
      distance = |close - MA21| / MA21
      IF distance > 0.5%:
          return False  // Price broke away

  return True  // All bars within 0.5% = struggling

Trading interpretation:

price_ma_struggle = True → Price is "fighting" the MA, no clear direction
price_ma_struggle = False → Price has conviction, clean trend

Configuration

Parameter	Value	Description
`primary_ma_period`	21	Fast moving average (21 MA)
`secondary_ma_period`	200	Slow moving average (200 MA)
`bullish_slope_threshold`	0.0001	+0.01% = bullish direction
`bearish_slope_threshold`	-0.0001	-0.01% = bearish direction
`ma_trending_min_slope`	0.0005	0.05% = 45-degree threshold
`price_ma_struggle_threshold`	0.005	0.5% = struggle zone
`min_bars_for_analysis`	10	Minimum bars needed
`min_bars_for_slope`	6	Bars for slope calculation

Output

TrendAnalysisResult:

Field	Type	Description
`trend_direction`	str	"up", "down", "sideways", "unknown"
`primary_ma_slope`	float	Actual slope value of MA21
`ma_trending_status`	bool	True = 45-degree, False = flattish
`price_ma_struggle`	bool	True = stuck near MA
`trend_confidence`	float	0-1 confidence score
`trend_strength`	float	0-1 strength score

Confidence Calculation

Confidence is weighted sum of three factors:

Confidence = (slope_factor × 0.4) + (position_factor × 0.3) + (alignment_factor × 0.3)

Where:
  slope_factor    = min(|MA_slope| / 0.05%, 1.0)
  position_factor = min(|price - MA| / 0.5%, 1.0)
  alignment_factor = 1.0 if direction matches MA trending, else 0.5

How MTF Analysis Uses This

multi_timeframe_analysis.py calls this component for each timeframe:

for timeframe in [1D, 4H, 1H, 15M, 5M]:
    result = trend_analysis_core._analyze_timeframe(data, timeframe)

    // Uses result.trend_direction for alignment check
    // Uses result.ma_trending_status for quality assessment
    // Uses result.price_ma_struggle for penalty detection

Example

Scenario: 5-minute bar with:

Close = 5850
MA21 = 5820 (30 points below close)
MA21 5 bars ago = 5800

Step 1: Calculate MA slope
  slope = (5820 - 5800) / 5800 = 0.00345 = 0.345%

Step 2: Determine trend direction
  close (5850) > MA21 (5820) ✓
  slope (0.345%) > bullish_threshold (0.01%) ✓
  → trend_direction = "up"

Step 3: Check MA trending
  |slope| (0.345%) > ma_trending_min (0.05%) ✓
  → ma_trending_status = True (45-degree angle)

Step 4: Check price-MA struggle
  distance = |5850 - 5820| / 5820 = 0.52%
  0.52% > 0.5% threshold
  → price_ma_struggle = False (price broke away cleanly)

Result: Strong bullish trend with 45-degree MA, price moving with conviction.

Key Methods

_analyze_timeframe()

Main entry point for single timeframe analysis. Calls all three algorithms.

_determine_trend_direction()

Algorithm 1: UP/DOWN/SIDEWAYS based on price vs MA21 and slope.

_check_ma_trending()

Algorithm 2: Is MA21 slope > 0.05%? (45-degree detection)

_check_price_ma_struggle()

Algorithm 3: Are all last 5 bars within 0.5% of MA21?

_calculate_ma_slope()

Helper: Calculates (MA_current - MA_5_bars_ago) / MA_5_bars_ago

Dependencies

Used By:

multi_timeframe_analysis.py - Calls this for each timeframe

Provides Data To:

setup_quality_detection.py - Uses price_ma_struggle for -30 penalty